- Terence Crawford, who last year retired undisputed at 154, has publicly picked Jaron Ennis to beat unified WBA/WBO champion Xander Zayas on June 27 at Barclays Center
- Crawford's key line: 'It's a tough fight, especially for Xander at this point in his career. He's gonna do real well in that fight, but I just think right now, it's a little bit too early for him.'
- Zayas, 23, is 22-0 and unified the belts with a January win over Serhii Bohachuk. Ennis, 28, is 34-0 and has had one fight in 12 months — the gap in activity matters, but so does the size and experience gap
Right then. Terence Crawford retired in December as the undisputed king of 154, so when he sits down with The Ring and tells them who wins the big unification fight in his old division, you listen. Crawford has gone with Jaron Ennis over Xander Zayas. And the quote is more pointed than you might think.
"It's a tough fight, especially for Xander at this point in his career," Crawford said. "He's gonna do real well in that fight, but I just think right now, it's a little bit too early for him."
Translation: Zayas is a future champion for the division. He's just not ready for this champion yet.
What Crawford Sees That Makes Him Pick Ennis
Crawford knows Ennis's style better than anyone outside his immediate camp. When Crawford was the champion at 147 and 154, Boots Ennis was the fighter everyone kept trying to engineer into the opposite corner. Crawford never took the fight, which tells you the respect level. Now, with Crawford gone and Ennis having moved up to 154, there are three things he's clearly clocked.
First, the size. Ennis campaigned at 147 for seven years. He is a proper 154-pounder now, but the frame underneath is a full-size welterweight. Zayas is 23 and still filling out at junior-middle. In-fight, the strength edge matters in the clinch, on the body, and in any exchange where one man leans on the other. Ennis will be heavier when they touch gloves.
Second, the experience gap at the top end. Zayas's win over Serhii Bohachuk in January was a proper title night, but Bohachuk fights at one speed. Ennis has been tested by Karen Chukhadzhian twice, by Eimantas Stanionis, by Custio Clayton. Ennis has already been in with awkward angles, with movers, with spoilers, with hitters. Zayas hasn't seen Ennis's style.
Third, the class on the shot selection. Ennis, on a good night, is the most fundamentally clean boxer in the sport. He doesn't waste punches. He pots shots behind a jab that is already among the best in the sport and he pivots out of trouble without ever being in it. Zayas is quick and skilful, but he throws more per round and leaves more gaps doing it. Over twelve, that favours Boots.
What Zayas Has Going For Him — And It's More Than People Think
Let me push back on the Crawford line for a second, because the "too early" framing undersells the champion. Zayas has had two world title fights in six months. He is fight-sharp. Ennis has boxed ONCE in the last year. When Ennis returned against Chukhadzhian in November he did not look sharp for six rounds, and he was fighting a man who does not punch hard. Zayas punches harder.
Zayas also has the age advantage for the championship rounds. He's 23, Ennis turns 29 in July. That's not a huge gap, but the difference between the fifth year of a pro career and the tenth shows in round eleven when you're tired and your feet haven't moved in a minute.
The blueprint for Zayas is the Bivol-Beterbiev blueprint — high work rate, take the early rounds on activity, and make Ennis fight more per minute than he wants to. If Zayas can get Ennis to throw 60 punches a round for twelve, he can nick this on three cards.
Luke's Take
Crawford is right. I had this as a close fight at the start of the year — I had it as Ennis on points, maybe 115-113 — but the more I've watched the Bohachuk fight back, the more I think Zayas is one fight too soon on this. The moment in the Bohachuk fight that did it for me was round nine. Zayas got hit clean with a right hand and had to hold on for fifty seconds. Ennis lands that shot harder and faster, and he doesn't give you the rest that Bohachuk did.
My pick: Jaron Ennis by late stoppage, TKO10, at Barclays Center. Zayas comes back at 168 and wins a world title inside three years, and the June 27 card becomes one of the great proving nights in American boxing.
But if you want the rebuttal — and every prediction needs its rebuttal — I will happily eat the words if Zayas gets Ennis into rounds eleven and twelve and the younger man's output steals a narrow decision. It's not impossible. It's just not the way Crawford, or I, see it.