- Andrew and Jason Moloney are the only two active fighters who have shared the ring with both Naoya Inoue and Junto Nakatani.
- Andrew (lost to Nakatani by KO12 in 2024, lost to Inoue by KO7 in 2020) leans Inoue, citing the Monster's adjustments mid-fight as the difference.
- Jason (lost to Inoue by KO7 in 2020, never fought Nakatani) is going Nakatani — said his power and length will be the deciding factor at 122. Luke's pick: Inoue UD12, very close.
Right Then — Two Brothers, One Ring, Two Generations Of Champions
Right then. Four days out from Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani at the Tokyo Dome. The biggest fight in Japanese boxing history, and a 55,000 sell-out that turned over in less time than it takes most cards to confirm a co-main. The world is talking, the betting markets are split, and frankly the only people whose opinion really matters this week are the two Australian brothers who have been in the ring with both men.
Make no mistake, the Moloney twins are an extraordinary data point. Andrew has shared the canvas with both. Jason has only fought Inoue but he is the most accurate predictor of his brother's style imaginable. They have been talking on Australian radio and on the DAZN morning show this week, and what they are saying is genuinely worth your time.
Andrew Moloney — Inoue, But Closer Than People Think
Andrew is the more cautious of the two brothers and his read carries the weight of recent ring time. He went twelve hard rounds with Nakatani in the WBO super flyweight defence in May 2024, was knocked out in the twelfth, and was honest enough to say afterwards that he had not really seen the punch coming. His take this week:
"Junto's a problem. He's long, he hits hard from outside, and his timing on the counter is something else. But Inoue is just on a different wavelength when he's pressed. The thing that nobody saw with me, with Donaire twice, with Stephen Fulton — Naoya makes mid-fight adjustments that are genuinely unique. Most fighters have a Plan A and Plan B. Inoue has a Plan A through F, and he reads which one to use round-by-round. That, for me, is the difference."
Andrew is calling it Inoue inside the distance, somewhere between rounds eight and ten. He thinks Nakatani has the early rounds — possibly two, three and four cleanly — but that the body work and the mental adjustments turn the tide.
Jason Moloney — Nakatani's Frame Wins It
Jason has the more contrarian view, and it is the one I find most interesting. He went seven rounds with Inoue in October 2020 in the Las Vegas bubble. He was knocked down twice and stopped on his feet. Brilliant fighter, said all the right things afterwards, and has watched obsessively since. His take is structural:
"At bantamweight, Naoya was the best in the world by a clear distance. At super flyweight too. But at 122, against a man who has been world champion at 112, 115 and 118 and walked up through every weight comfortably — that is a different proposition. Junto is naturally bigger. He is naturally longer. And his power has not faded once with each move up. If you are asking me to bet, I am betting on the man whose body has handled 122 better, and that is Nakatani. Late stoppage. Round eleven, twelve, or a wide decision."
The frame point is the most underrated part of this whole fight week. Inoue has visibly thickened up at 122 and looks like he is carrying it well, but he has been at the weight for a year. Nakatani has been at 118 for two years. The move up is shorter for Nakatani — and that, in pure physics, is a real argument.
The Moloney Read In One Line — And Why It Matters
If you know, you know — when men who have actually been hit by both fighters split the prediction down the middle, the fight is closer than the betting suggests. Inoue is currently around 1/3 with the bookmakers. Nakatani is 5/2. Those numbers are saying "Inoue by stoppage, comfortable." The Moloney brothers are saying "this is a swing fight that comes down to one or two rounds and possibly one big shot late."
I am with the brothers. The bookies' price has been priced off Inoue's history as a stoppage merchant at the lower weights. It has not been priced enough off the fact that Nakatani is bigger, longer, and has not lost a single round at world level since 2022. This is a closer fight than the markets think.
My Pick — Inoue UD12, And A Trip To The Hospital
Right then, the prediction. I am picking Inoue on points. Twelve rounds. I think it goes the distance for the first time in a major Inoue fight in years, I think Nakatani has him hurt at least once — round six is my best guess — and I think the Monster's championship rounds and his ability to land the body shots that have ended every other big fight he has had is what tips it.
Inoue UD12 — 116-112 or 115-113 on my card. Nakatani goes home with his head held high, his stock higher than it was, and a US super-fight against Shakur Stevenson or someone bigger waiting for him at 130. Inoue cashes the cheque, keeps the four belts, and announces a stadium show in the United States in November.
If Nakatani lands the left hand clean in round seven and Inoue is still on his stool when the bell goes, I will be the first to take the rollicking. But I trust the Moloney read more than the bookmakers, and the Moloney read says this is a 60/40 fight. I'll take the 60.