- Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu officially confirmed for July 25 (Australia, July 26 local time) at a venue still to be locked, broadcast worldwide on Amazon Prime Video PPV
- The fight is at 154 lbs catchweight — Spence stepping up from welterweight, Tszyu coming back down from his most recent middleweight outing — and headlines a PBC card with launch press conference set for Saturday in Las Vegas
- Spence has not fought since the Crawford undisputed loss in July 2023 — almost three years out — and turns 36 by fight night
The Comeback That Took Three Years
Make no mistake — this is the comeback boxing has been waiting on for the better part of three years. Errol Spence has not laced gloves in anger since the Crawford undisputed loss in July 2023, when Bud Crawford dismantled him over nine rounds and stamped his ticket as the man at 147. Three years, an eye operation, multiple surgeries, two false starts, and one X-thread row with Tszyu later — Spence is back.
And the opponent is the right one. Not a tune-up. Not a gimme. Tim Tszyu is a former unified 154 champion with twenty-seven wins, eighteen knockouts, and a full beard's worth of experience at the championship level. He's the only fight that makes sense for Spence's first night back — anything softer, and the question of whether Errol still has it goes unanswered. This way, we know inside twelve rounds.
Why Australia, Why 154
The venue is Australia. Tszyu is the A-side at home, the one selling the building, the one with the Aussie audience. Spence is travelling because Spence needs the fight more than Tszyu does. Tszyu has options — he could've waited for the Crawford rematch picture or the Sebastian Fundora unification, both of which were in the diary. Instead, he took the Spence bag. That tells you what he thinks about Spence at this point of the calendar.
The 154 catchweight is interesting. Spence's last twelve-round outing was at 147 against Crawford. He's a big welterweight and he's been north of 160 in camp by all accounts. Coming up to 154 is the weight he was always going to land at if he stayed active, and it solves the rehydration question that hurt him at the top end of welter. For Tszyu, 154 is home — he was champion at the weight before the Fundora drop. Both men should make weight comfortably. That's not where this fight gets won or lost.
The Tale Of The Tape — And The Threes
Spence is 28-1 with 22 knockouts. Tszyu is 27-3 with 18. The records flatter Tszyu slightly. He's lost to Fundora (cut stoppage), Bakhram Murtazaliev (proper stoppage, that one was levels) and Joey Spencer (recent UD). Spence's only loss is to Crawford, and that's the loss everyone's still trying to work out — was it Bud being on another planet, or was it Errol's eye, or was it the cumulative damage of the wars at 147?
Style-wise, Spence has the better jab, the better body work, and the cleaner southpaw mechanics. Tszyu has the heavier hands, the ring smarts, and the recent activity. The activity is the swing factor. Three years out for a man who took the kind of damage Errol has absorbed at 147 — that's a long time. The eye gets watched. The legs get watched. Round one tells us a lot.
The Las Vegas Presser And What It Means
The launch press conference is tomorrow in Las Vegas. Both men flying in. PBC running the production. That's the first time the world sees Spence in person at fight kit weight since Crawford. The cameras will be on his eye, on his cheekbones, on whether he's the same man — or a smaller, leaner, version trying to convince everyone he's still the guy.
And Tszyu, to be fair, is not going to give him an easy ride at the dais. The X-thread row earlier in April — Tszyu fishing for Spence and Errol biting back — set the tone. Tszyu thinks he's already got Spence figured out. Spence thinks Tszyu is the appetiser before the real money fights at 147 and 154. They're both wrong about each other, which is exactly what makes a fight.
Luke's Pick — Three Months Out
I'm leaning Tszyu. I know that's not the popular take. I know Spence is one of the best welterweights of his generation, and I know the Crawford loss carries asterisks. But three years out is three years out. That kind of layoff at age 36, post-surgery, against a top-tier 154 — I don't see how the timing comes back round one. Tszyu's been active. Tszyu's been hit. Tszyu knows what he's bringing into the second half of fights.
My early read is Tszyu by middle-rounds wear-down, possibly stoppage in the eight or nine if Spence's eye behaves badly. That said — and let's not beat around the bush — the moment Spence lands clean in the first three rounds, I'm changing my mind. If you know, you know — Errol's left hand, when it lands, ends fights. The whole thing might be decided in the first six minutes of a fight that runs thirty-six. Watch this space. Booking my flights to Sydney mentally already.