- Lance Pugmire confirms Mbilli is officially in competition for Canelo's September 12 Riyadh return
- Mbilli holds the WBC super middleweight belt that Canelo lost to Terence Crawford — the only live title Canelo can chase back
- Luke's pick if it's signed: Canelo by decision, competitive through 8, blueprint nerves settle late
Pugmire's Tweet And What It Actually Confirms
Lance Pugmire isn't a man who pushes smoke. When he tweeted on Monday — "Official: Mbilli competing with others for Canelo's next fight" — that's a confirmation that Canelo Alvarez's camp have sent the Montreal-based Cameroonian-Canadian a genuine offer sheet. It isn't a done deal. An insider close to negotiations told Boxing Scene: "Whatever it is, it will be Canelo's choice." Which is fair enough — Canelo's earned that right.
But what Pugmire's note does do is quietly tell you who's out. No mention of David Benavidez, who's moved up to cruiserweight on May 2 and has been publicly critical of Canelo for a year. No mention of a Crawford rematch, because Crawford doesn't need it and the money isn't there without Canelo holding a belt. No mention of Janibek Alimkhanuly either, who's been floated before. It's Mbilli versus two or three names being kept quiet. Mbilli's the frontrunner because he's the only one making genuine tactical sense.
Why Mbilli Is The Only Proper Fight On The List
Make no mistake — Canelo does not need Mbilli from a business standpoint. He can fight a soft touch, sell it on Mexican Independence weekend, and the Saudis will still pay for whatever he turns up with. But belts matter to Canelo. Always have. And the WBC super middleweight belt — the one he lost to Crawford last September — is currently hanging from Mbilli's shoulder. That's the only live title Canelo can chase back in one fight. That alone makes Mbilli the sensible pick.
Mbilli is 28-0, 23 KOs, and genuinely has proper levels. He's not a spoiler. He's not a sparring partner. He's been running through the middle of the 168-pound division for three years with a stiff jab, a straight right hand, and body work that ruins opponents by round eight. He's 30 years old, French-trained, fights tall at 5'11" with a clean orthodox guard, and he'll walk Canelo down from round one.
The other names people are floating — sub-contender types, or a Callum Smith redo — are fine. They sell tickets. But none of them give Canelo a belt back. And Canelo in his mid-thirties, three fights away from retirement, doesn't want to be remembered as the bloke who walked away a former champion. He wants the belt back.
Luke's Prediction If It's Signed
If this gets made — and I think it gets made — it's a competitive fight for eight rounds before Canelo's experience and body work grinds Mbilli down. Mbilli will have moments. He'll land the straight right hand. He'll bully Canelo into the ropes in the first four because Canelo likes to let opponents walk themselves onto counters. But Mbilli has never fought anyone with Canelo's ring IQ. He's never had to deal with that level of defensive composure. Canelo doesn't rush, doesn't panic, and picks his spots.
My pick: Canelo by unanimous decision, 115-113 sort of scorecards, competitive but clear. If Canelo gets dropped at any point, Mbilli will win — he's the bigger man and the fresher legs — but Canelo has been dropped twice in his career, both times by pressure fighters, and he learned from both nights. The levels are real but they're not a canyon. This is a proper fight, and the only one on the shortlist that belongs on a Riyadh main event.
Whatever Canelo decides, we'll know within a fortnight. But if it's anyone other than Mbilli, Canelo's camp are picking business over legacy — and that's a choice he hasn't made before. If you know, you know.