- Hrgovic v Allen lands at Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster on Saturday May 16 — DAZN, co-promoted by Queensberry and Matchroom. Ringwalks pencilled for around 10:15pm UK.
- Allen (25-8-2, 20 KOs) is the home-stadium underdog at 33 years old; Hrgovic (19-1, 14 KOs) is the heavy favourite chasing his way back to a world title shot after the Dubois stoppage loss.
- There is an Itauma clause in the contract — winner is mandated for the August 8 O2 main event slot, which means this fight matters significantly more than the casual eye is treating it.
Right Then — The Stadium Fight Nobody Is Talking About
Right then. While the entire UK boxing media has been camped in Manchester all week, eight days from now there is a heavyweight stadium fight in South Yorkshire that deserves a lot more attention than it is getting. Dave Allen against Filip Hrgovic at the Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster. May 16. DAZN. And yes, with an Itauma clause in the contract that makes the winner the lead candidate for the August 8 O2 main event.
This is one of those fights where the surface tells you one story and the small print tells you another. On the surface — heavily favoured European contender against a popular British journeyman, mismatch on paper, easy night. In the small print — a 33-year-old home-stadium underdog who has done this twice before in fights he was supposed to lose, against a Croatian who has not been the same fighter since Daniel Dubois stopped him.
The Eight-Days-Out Read
Both camps reported in good shape this week. Allen has done his usual thing — Sheffield camp under his small core team, weight on schedule, no drama. He told the local press on Tuesday that he feels "as right as I've ever felt for a fight", which is the same thing he says before every fight, but this time the body language matches the words.
Hrgovic has been training under Pedro Diaz in Florida and the camp posted a sparring montage this week that, frankly, looked sharp. He is moving well, his footwork is back, and the lateral movement that disappeared in the Dubois fight looks like it has come back. The 28-year-old Croatian has rebuilt his confidence in the year since that Wembley loss with two routine wins, and he is at the front of the queue for whichever world title belt comes loose next.
The Itauma Clause Is The Real Story
Make no mistake — the contract clause that mandates the winner of this fight as the August 8 O2 main event opponent for Moses Itauma is the bit that turns this from a stadium night into a properly important heavyweight fight. The number-one ranked WBA and WBO heavyweight in the world is looking for an opponent who is either a former world title challenger or a current top-fifteen name. Hrgovic ticks both boxes. Allen ticks neither — but if he wins this, he ticks them both retroactively.
That puts Allen in the funny position of being the underdog with the most to gain, and Hrgovic in the position of being the favourite with the most to lose. A loss for Hrgovic to Allen at a stadium in Doncaster does not just lose him the Itauma fight — it ends his world-title relevance for at least eighteen months. A loss for Allen to Hrgovic is the loss everyone expected; the win is career-defining.
Why I'm Picking Hrgovic — And Why I'm Not Picking Him By A Mile
Hrgovic's class is real. He is a 2016 Olympic bronze medallist, he has world-level amateur pedigree, he has fought top-fifteen heavyweights for years and he has the better technique, the better footwork and the better jab in this fight by a considerable margin.
But — and this is the bit the casuals are missing — Dave Allen at a stadium in Doncaster, in front of his crowd, is not the same fighter as Dave Allen at a leisure centre in Sheffield on a Tuesday night in February. He has been here before. Lucas Browne in 2019. Nick Webb in 2018. Both fights he was supposed to lose, both fights he found something extra in front of his people. He is also, despite the popular narrative, an absolutely vicious right hand puncher when he sets his feet.
If Hrgovic boxes the right way — jab, jab, right hand, lateral movement, no inside exchanges — he wins this on points or stops Allen late. If he gets sucked into a stadium war and tries to prove a point, he gets caught. He has been caught at the championship level before, and the chin is a question.
Luke's Eight-Days-Out Pick
Hrgovic by stoppage in round nine. He boxes the first six rounds clean, banks them all on the cards, runs into a couple of Allen right hands in round seven that wobble him, recovers in round eight, then stops Allen in round nine when the home man's engine fades against the heavier work rate. Howard Foster, almost certainly. Final scorecard up to that point: 60-54 Hrgovic, but with two of those rounds being closer than the cards say.
If you want the value bet — and I never tell anyone to bet — Allen by KO is somewhere in the 7/1 range and is not the worst flyer for a fiver. He has a 20 per cent universe in this fight. Hrgovic on points is the chalk. The under is the actually-likely outcome. Knowing the heavyweight division, expect the actually-likely outcome to not happen.
The Last Word
Eight days out, this is the heavyweight fight that has been overshadowed by Manchester and probably will continue to be until the day before. That is fine. The week of May 11-16 is when this becomes a story — Hrgovic flies in from Florida camp, Allen does the local media circus, the press conferences ramp up, and by the time we get to weigh-in eve at Doncaster, this should feel like exactly what it is: a stadium heavyweight title eliminator with a clear path to the O2 in August. Don't sleep on it. The winner is fighting for a world title the next time out.