- Filip Hrgovic vs Dave Allen — Eco-Power Stadium Doncaster, tonight, DAZN, main ring walk approx 10pm BST.
- Both men hit the scales bang on — Allen 248.8 (lightest in seven years), Hrgovic 246.2 — fitter than expected, focused, no excuses available either way.
- Luke's pick: Hrgovic stops Allen between rounds 8 and 10. Dave's heart drags him deep but the Croatian's right hand to the body is the equaliser nobody's talking about.
What Tonight Is Actually About
Make no mistake. Tonight is about three things — and the order matters.
First, it's Dave Allen's homecoming. The Eco-Power Stadium. Doncaster. Sold out. Friends, family, school teachers, the lot. The bloke who walked away from boxing twice and came back twice, the bloke who said for years he'd never headline a stadium and is doing it tonight, gets one night that nobody can take off him. That's the human bit and you can't pretend it doesn't matter.
Second, it's Hrgovic's last shot at a top-five world ranking before he turns thirty-four. Lose to Dave Allen in Doncaster and the Croatian is parked. Win and he's the proper Itauma August 8 fight at the O2 — a fight that's already in the briefing room and will sell out the building before tickets go on general release.
Third — and this is the bit the pre-fight chat has skipped — it's a stylistic puzzle. Allen at 248 is not the Allen who lost to Hammer or got blown out by Hrgovic version one. This is a lean Dave with proper coaching from Andy Lee, a fortnight at altitude in Marbella, and a corner that has talked openly about going for the body in the first six rounds because they know they cannot win twelve. They know what they have to do. The question is whether they can do it.
The Round Read
I think this fight has two clear chapters and I think the second one is shorter than the first.
Rounds 1-4: Allen has the better start. He's lighter, he's more relaxed than at any point in his career, and the crowd will lift him. Hrgovic is a slow starter at the best of times — Zhilei Zhang dropped him in round eight, Dubois in round seven, Usyk in round nine. Round one, two, three? Allen takes them on volume, leans on the inside, lands a couple of decent left hooks and the building shakes. I'd be amazed if he isn't 3-1 up after four.
Rounds 5-9: This is where it tilts. Hrgovic is the bigger puncher with the bigger right hand and a brilliant short right uppercut on the inside. Once he's warm, he hurts you. Allen's biggest weakness has always been the right hand to the body — Lucas Browne hurt him there, Hammer hurt him there. Hrgovic throws the best straight right hand to the body in the heavyweight division and the only one of his peers who consistently lands it on world-class operators. I think the fifth round is where the tone changes. The seventh is where Allen ships a bad one. The eighth or ninth is where the corner has the conversation.
Round 10? Don't see it going there.
What Allen Has To Do
Stay heavy on Hrgovic's chest. Push him to the ropes early and often. Make the Croatian throw — Hrgovic punches in twos and is sloppy when fatigued, which is why Zhang dropped him and why Dubois got the stoppage second time around. If Allen can drag this past six and Hrgovic is still walking him down, Allen is in trouble. If Allen can drag this past six and Hrgovic is moving backwards looking for room, Allen wins.
What Hrgovic Has To Do
Patience. Body shots in rounds three through six. Don't get pulled into a phone-booth war Allen wants. The clean right hand to the body lands every time Allen reaches with the jab — which Allen does about thirty times a round. Stack those up and the late rounds open up for him.
Luke's Pick
Hrgovic TKO 9. Body shot does it. Allen goes down to a knee in the eighth, gets up, ships another one in the ninth, the referee or the corner pulls it.
I want to be wrong. I'd love Dave to win this. I'd love nothing more than to write the upset article on Sunday morning. But I'm calling it how I see it and the Croatian's right hand to the body is levels above Allen's chin and ribs in their late thirties form.
Either way — proper fight, proper night, proper homecoming. Doncaster deserves this. Enjoy it.