Spence vs Tszyu Two Weeks Out — The Truth's Comeback Is A Proper Gamble

• Errol Spence Jr (28-1, 22 KOs) meets Tim Tszyu (27-3, 18 KOs) in Sydney on July 25 — the first event of the new DAZN–PBC agreement, on pay-per-view
• It's Spence's first fight since the Terence Crawford defeat in July 2023, and his first ever at super welterweight
• Luke's verdict: a motivated home-town Tszyu beats the ring rust — Spence's class keeps it competitive early, but the Aussie stops him late

Right Then — Two Weeks To Sydney

Right then, we're two weeks out from Spence vs Tszyu, and I still can't quite believe the shape of it. Errol Spence Jr — The Truth, the man who unified welterweight and looked like the best 147-pounder on the planet before Terence Crawford dismantled him — returns after nearly three years away, in his opponent's back yard, at a weight he's never fought at, headlining the very first card of the new DAZN–PBC era. If you wrote it as fiction, an editor would send it back for being too much.

The Fight In Black And White

Let's lay it out. Spence is 28-1 with 22 knockouts and hasn't heard a bell since July 2023. Tim Tszyu is 27-3 with 18 knockouts, fought three months ago, and gets to walk out in front of his own people in Sydney on July 25. Spence is 36 and a southpaw. Tszyu is 31, orthodox, and fighting for his career after a bruising couple of years that saw him lose the aura of invincibility he carried through his first twenty-odd fights. The broadcast lands on pay-per-view as the flagship opening night of the DAZN–PBC agreement we covered here.

The Case For Spence

Class is permanent, and Spence's class was proper class. At his best he was a suffocating pressure southpaw with a body attack that broke men in instalments — the string of champions he unified against all found that out the hard way. The move to 154 should, in theory, help a man whose weight cuts at 147 were becoming a horror show. And Tszyu, for all his heart, has shown he can be hit — the blueprint is there for a sharp puncher who times him coming in. If even eighty per cent of the old Spence turns up, he has the tools to school Tszyu and announce himself all over again.

The Case For Tszyu

But let's not beat around the bush — that's a colossal "if". Three years out of the ring at 36, after the kind of beating Crawford handed him, with a car crash in his recent history and a new division under his feet? Boxing is littered with great champions who came back as tribute acts. Tszyu, meanwhile, has been active, he's hungry, and he's fighting at home with everything on the line. His last few performances have shown the flaws, sure, but they've also shown a man who walks through fire and keeps coming. Freshness wins fights like this far more often than faded brilliance does.

My Verdict

Time to call it, and I never sit on the fence. My head wants to pick Spence, because prime-for-prime he's levels above. But we're not getting prime Spence — we're getting a 36-year-old who's been out for three years and needed the softest possible re-entry, and instead chose the hardest. I'm picking Tim Tszyu, and I'm picking him inside the distance. Spence wins rounds early on timing and craft, the home crowd gets nervous, and then somewhere around the eighth the accumulation tells and the referee has seen enough. Tszyu by late stoppage. If the old Spence shows up and makes me look daft, brilliant — boxing wins either way. But make no mistake: this comeback is a gamble, and I think Sydney collects.