Fight Eve In Moscow — Gassiev vs Kadiru, Joyce's Gamble, And Luke's Predictions

• Murat Gassiev makes the first defence of his WBA heavyweight title against Peter Kadiru at the VTB Arena in Moscow on Saturday night
• Joe Joyce, 40, faces unbeaten Russian Artem Suslenkov (14-0) on the undercard — a high-risk, low-reward fight after missing out on the title shot
• Luke's verdicts: Gassiev inside six against the brave stand-in, and — it hurts to write it — Suslenkov over the Juggernaut on points

Right Then — Twenty-Four Hours Out

Right then, it's fight eve in Moscow, and what a strange, compelling card this has become. What started as Murat Gassiev against Tony Yoka has been through the wringer — Yoka's back gave out, Joe Joyce was in the frame for about five minutes, and in the end it's Hamburg's Peter Kadiru who walks into the VTB Arena on Saturday with a world title in front of him and the whole of Russia against him. We covered the chaos as it happened; now it's time to call the fights.

Gassiev vs Kadiru — The Main Event

Let's not beat around the bush about the size of Kadiru's task. He took this fight on four days' notice, he's unranked by the sanctioning bodies, and he's sharing a ring with one of the most frightening punchers of the last decade. Gassiev's body shots ended cruiserweights in instalments back in his World Boxing Super Series days, and since moving up he's carried that same dead-eyed menace at heavyweight. This is his first defence of the WBA strap, at home, in front of his own people. Champions do not let nights like that go wrong.

Kadiru's One Path

Credit where it's due — Kadiru is a proper professional who rebuilt himself from a 56-second knockout defeat into a ten-fight winning run, and his jab is genuinely educated. If he can keep the fight long, keep Gassiev turning, and survive the first half, the champion has had gas-tank questions before. That's the path. It's narrow, it's steep, and it's got Murat Gassiev stood in the middle of it.

Prediction: Gassiev Inside Six

I said it when Kadiru signed on and I'll say it again on fight eve: the fairytale ends inside six rounds. Gassiev walks him down, the body attack starts landing from round two, and somewhere between the fourth and the sixth the accumulation becomes unanswerable. Gassiev by stoppage, and the WBA title stays in Moscow.

Joyce vs Suslenkov — The Last Stand

Now the fight that actually keeps me up at night. Joe Joyce at 40, four defeats in his last handful, taking on an unbeaten 30-year-old Russian in Artem Suslenkov — 14-0, nine knockouts — in the man's home city, for the sort of purse that tells you everything about where the Juggernaut's leverage has gone. Joyce was brilliant once. That Olympic silver, the demolition of Daniel Dubois' unbeaten record, the granite chin that made him appointment viewing. But the chin has been cashing cheques for fifteen years, and the losses to Filip Hrgovic and others showed the punch resistance and the engine both fading at once.

Prediction: Suslenkov On Points

It genuinely hurts to write this, because Joyce has given British boxing some brilliant nights. But make no mistake — this is a fight chosen for Suslenkov, not for Joyce. The younger man is fresher, faster, and at home. Joyce's pressure will make it honest and he'll have his moments, because he always does, but over ten rounds I see Suslenkov boxing, moving and nicking rounds on the cards. Suslenkov by decision. And if the referee waves it off late instead, nobody should be surprised. If Joyce proves me wrong, I'll be the happiest man in the wrong.

The Bigger Picture

Win emphatically and Gassiev puts himself right in the conversation with the winners of the summer's heavyweight shuffle — the division above him is rearranging itself by the week, as anyone following the WBC situation knows. For Kadiru, a brave defeat still leaves him with a profile he didn't have a fortnight ago. And for Joyce? Whatever happens tomorrow night, he owes this sport nothing. If you know, you know.