- Spence vs Tszyu officially announced for July 25 in Australia, PBC PPV on Prime Video — first Spence fight since November 2023
- Catchweight agreed at 158, neither natural welterweight nor full middleweight — Spence ends his welterweight era, Tszyu boxes at home
- Both men exchanged honest jabs in the launch presser — Spence accepts fans should doubt him, Tszyu accepts Spence has plenty to prove
The Comeback Is Real, And It's Not Soft
Right then. Errol Spence Jr against Tim Tszyu is officially in the diary for July 25 in Australia. PBC pay-per-view on Prime Video. The fight was confirmed during the Cinco de Mayo media swing in Las Vegas this week. The catchweight has landed at 158 — a number that puts the fight comfortably north of welterweight and just shy of true middleweight territory.
Make no mistake about the size of this. Spence hasn't fought since the Crawford defeat in November 2023. He's spent the better part of three years rebuilding his body, his eyes, and the appetite. He could have come back at home. He could have come back in a tune-up. He's done neither. He's flying to Tszyu's backyard — Sydney or Melbourne, the venue still to be confirmed — and walking into the away dressing room. That's a proper comeback. That's not a man easing back in.
Spence Accepts The Doubt — And He's Right To
The most refreshing thing this week was Spence not playing the "I'm back to my best" card. He's been honest. "I can see why people would say, 'I don't think he's coming back,'" he told media. He added that he's "more energy, more alive, mentally better, physically better" — but called out the reservations himself rather than dismissing them. That's the right tone for a fighter who hasn't been seen in nearly three years.
Let's be clear though. Spence at his best was, in this writer's view, a top-three welterweight of the modern era. He unified the WBC, WBA and IBF straps. He beat Keith Thurman, Manny Pacquiao, and a string of high-level operators at 147. The eye surgery, the car crash before that, the Crawford schooling — every one of those is a real reason for doubt. None of them erase what Spence is at his ceiling. The question is whether enough of that ceiling is left at 36.
Tszyu's Read — And His Right To Be Confident
Tszyu has done the right thing too. He didn't pretend Spence was finished. He just asked the obvious question. "What does Errol Spence have left in the tank after another three years off?" he asked publicly. Tszyu added, "I'm taking this fight because I know I'm going to win. If I had a little glimpse of losing, I wouldn't have taken this fight."
That's a man who has cleaned out his recent ledger. His shutout of Denis Nurja in Wollongong this year reset the conversation around him. He's at home. He's the prime fighter on the night by some distance — Tszyu turns 32 this winter, Spence turns 36 this spring. And the catchweight is closer to Tszyu's natural fighting weight than to Spence's prime 147.
Why The 158 Catchweight Matters
This is the detail that decides a lot of the fight. 158 is two pounds above the 154 super welterweight limit and two pounds below the 160 middleweight limit. That's not a Tszyu number — he's been at 154 his whole top-level career. It's not a Spence number either — he was a welterweight forever. Both men had to give. Both did.
For Spence, 158 means no boiling-down to 147 ever again. The walking-around weight question gets quieter, the eye health gets safer, the stamina becomes a function of conditioning rather than starvation. For Tszyu, 158 keeps him sharp without forcing him to add quality middleweight muscle in eight weeks. It's a workable middle ground. Not perfect for either, fair enough for both.
Luke's Pick — Tszyu By Decision, Tight
I'll plant my flag now. I think Tszyu wins this and I think it's narrow. Home advantage, prime years, fresher body, sharper recent activity. Spence's ring rust at this level is going to be ugly through the first six rounds and Tszyu has the volume and the work rate to bank early sessions. Spence's class will surface in the back half — he was always brilliant from the eighth round onwards — but I don't see him stopping Tszyu and I don't see him outlanding him over twelve.
Tszyu by clear decision. Cards in the 116-112 region. Spence wins three or four rounds late and the post-fight conversation will be about whether he stays in the sport or quietly retires. I want to be wrong about that last bit, because Spence at his best is one of the best things about this era. But three years off at 36 is a ladder you can't always climb.
What This Does To The 154-160 Picture
The winner is in the title conversation. Sebastian Fundora is the WBC and WBO 154 king. Zayas vs Ennis in June sets up the IBF and the unified picture. Janibek still rules the 160 division until told otherwise. The Spence-Tszyu winner threads neatly into either ladder depending on what they cap their fighting weight at next.
If you know, you know. This isn't a tune-up and it isn't a money grab. This is two ex-champions, on serious money, in front of an Australian crowd that is going to absolutely lose its mind. July 25. Pencil it in.